Week 5 Picks

With one-quarter of the regular season complete, we head toward the backstretch in the NFL season, and so far my record is a rather disappointing 37-25. Now, it's a decent record and I would be good enough for 4th place in comparison with ESPN's panel of experts, but I'm not satisfied. So, after three straight weeks of being 2 above .500, it's time to turn in a big number. So, with that being said, the picks in week 5 in the league where they play.........for pay...

Sunday, October 10

Jacksonville Jaguars (2-2) @ Buffalo Bills (0-4) - Last week the Jets came into Buffalo and whacked the Bills around 38-14; meanwhile, the Jaguars had an inspiring 31-28 win over the Indianapolis Colts. This game does set up as a trap game for Jacksonville as they have another division game next week against Tennessee, so it's not crazy to think that they would be overlooking the Bills, who are looking to get to the bye week next week for a chance to possibly regroup. It's impossible to have any faith in either defense, both have given up at least 28 in the last 3 weeks, Buffalo is even worse, giving up at least 34 in that stretch. However, Buffalo struggles mightily against the run--they allowed two-100 yard rushers last week--and the Jaguars have one of the best in Maurice Jones-Drew. Pick: JACKSONVILLE

Denver Broncos (2-2) @ Baltimore Ravens (3-1) - The Ravens come in to this one following their huge come from behind victory over division rival Pittsburgh, while Denver beat the Titans in Tennessee last week in a come from behind effort of their own. Denver has no running game to speak of, and against a defense as good as Baltimore's that only allows 117 yards per game, that does not bode well. As good as Baltimore's run defense is, Denver's is even better, allowing just 101 yards per game, so Ray Rice, who says he's healthy and ready to go, could be in for a long day. If this game was in Denver, I think I might take the Broncos in an upset because the thin air in the mile high city might be able to slow down Ray Lewis; however, the game is not in Denver, it's in Baltimore. Pick: BALTIMORE

Kansas City Chiefs (3-0) @ Indianapolis Colts (2-2) - The league's only remaining unbeaten team comes off its bye week and goes into Indianapolis to play Peyton Manning and the Colts, who lost last week in Jacksonville on a last second field goal. For years Manning and the Colts were tormented by Romeo Crennel and Charlie Weis while they were the defensive and offensive coordinators with the New England Patriots, and now they both hold the same positions with the Chiefs, so there will be familiarity, especially in the chess match between Crennel and Manning. Colts WR Autin Collie has not been practicing for much of the week and is questionable for the game, and his absence would be HUGE. The Chiefs feature a well balanced offensive attack that averages 160 yards on the ground and through the air, but look for them to to rely on the running game against an Indianapolis defense that allows 150 rushing yards per game and to keep Manning off the field. The Chiefs have looked impressive, but they really do take a step up in class this week, despite Indianapolis only being 2-2. So, the question here is whether or not you believe in the Chiefs. Maybe you do, but I don't. Pick: INDIANAPOLIS

Green Bay Packers (3-1) @ Washington Redskins (2-2) - The Packers nearly gave one away last week against Detroit, but hung on for a 28-26 win after leading 28-14. The Redskins beat the Eagles 17-12 in Donovan McNabb's return to Philadelphia; in fact, both teams have gone into Philadelphia and won. I think Aaron Rodgers is going to have to win this one through the air for Green Bay, and my guess is that he will and the Green Bay defense will come up with a big effort. Pick: GREEN BAY

St. Louis Rams (2-2) @ Detroit Lions (0-4) - The Lions are not going to go away quietly, and they've shown that in two of the last 3 weeks, rallying against both Philadelphia and Green Bay. the Rams knocked off Seattle last week to move into a three way tie for 1st place in the NFC West. This would be a great matchup of young QBs, and the last two #1 picks in the draft, if Matthew Stafford were playing, but he's not and instead it will be Shaun Hill vs Sam Bradford. I don't have a real strong feeling on this game, and neither do the odds makers, who have Detroit as a 3 point favorite, and teams usually get 3 points for being at home. Pick: ST. LOUIS

Chicago Bears (3-1) @ Carolina Panthers (0-4) - Everyone saw the beatdown that Jay Cutler took as he was sacked 9 times in the first half of the Bears 17-3 loss to the Giants. Cutler sustained a concussion on the last of those sacks and did not return, nor will he play in this one against the Panthers. At least the Bears will not have to worry about blocking Julius Peppers, who they signed from Carolina this past off-season; however, they will have to worry about Todd Collins starting under center for the first time since 2007. It would be tempting to pick the Panthers, but they will not have WR Steve Smith, which will really hamper their rookie QB Jimmy Clausen in the passing game. I think this is going to be a low scoring game, especially with Cutler out and Collins in, and the first to 20 should come away with the win. Pick: CHICAGO

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2-1) @ Cincinnati Bengals (2-2) - The Bucs come back from the bye week after they allowed Charlie Batch and the Steelers to throw the ball all over the field on them and the Bengals are on the rebound after an embarrassing loss to the Browns in Cleveland. While they certainly have the big names that we're all used to hearing about, the Bengals have struggled to put up points, and you have to wonder if Chad Ochocinco and Terrell Owens are not Batman and Robin, but rather Dumb and Dumber. I still have my doubts about the Bucs, and I'll take the Bengals, but that's out of respect for Cincinnati's defense. Pick: CINCINNATI

Atlanta Falcons (3-1) @ Cleveland Browns (1-3) - The Falcons took all the 49ers could give them last week, but squeaked by with a 16-14 win, and the Browns got a close win of their own at home against the Bengals. Peyton Hillis has run wild the last two weeks for the Browns, who have played close games all year. I would expect this one to be close as well, but the Falcons are a step up in class, and the last time Cleveland played a team as good as Atlanta, they lost to the Ravens. Pick: ATLANTA

New York Giants (2-2) @ Houston Texans (3-1) - The Giants made quite a statement last Sunday night against the Bears in getting 9 sacks in the first half, 10 overall, and knocking Jay Cutler out of the game with a concussion while winning 17-3. The Texans beat the Raiders in Oakland. I'll admit that my first thought in this one was that the Texans would win easy, but I'm not so sure anymore. Neither team has looked good in interconference play, the Giants have been embarrassed by their 2 AFC South opponents, and the Texans are 1-1 thanks to a heroic rally from 17 points down in Washington. The two defenses play right to the strengths of their opposing offenses, the Texans allow big yards through the air, although they've been better in the past two weeks; and the Giants are vulnerable against the run, but the Bears would tell you otherwise. The Giant offense worries me, and I don't think the Texans will struggle to put up points. Pick: HOUSTON

New Orleans Saints (3-1) @ Arizona Cardinals (2-2) - The Saints are 3-1 and they have yet to fire on all cylinders, while the Cardinals are incredibly fortunate not to be 0-4. Arizona takes a big step up in class this week, and the last time they played a team this good they got blown out by the Falcons in week 2. Pick: NEW ORLEANS

Tennessee Titans (2-2) @ Dallas Cowboys (1-2) - The Titans blew a 4th quarter lead last week against Denver in losing 26-20, and the Cowboys are coming back from their bye week after beating in-state rival Houston in week 3. The Titans feature one of the best rushing attacks in the league, something the Cowboys have done a good job of stopping so far. Pick: DALLAS

San Diego Chargers (2-2) @ Oakland Raiders (1-3) - The Chargers are 0-2 on the road this year, but I still have no faith in the Raiders. Pick: SAN DIEGO

Philadelphia Eagles (2-2) @ San Francisco 49ers (0-4) - The Eagles lost to Donovan McNabb and the Redskins last week in McNabb's homecoming, while the 49ers lost a hard fought game to the Falcons. More importantly, the Eagles lost QB Michael Vick, who had been playing extremely well, and will go into this one with Kevin Kolb, the original successor to McNabb, under center. The Eagles have not looked good with Kolb, but the 49ers do not boast an elite QB of their own in Alex Smith. Pick: SAN FRANCISCO

Monday Night Football

Minnesota Vikings (1-2) @ New York Jets (3-1) - The Vikings had a much needed bye last week and the Jets steamrolled the Bills in Buffalo. Both teams will get upgrades at wide receiver this week, Santonio Holmes returns from his suspension and the Vikings acquired Randy Moss from the Patriots in a trade this week. Jets CB Darrelle Revis says he's healthy and ready to go against Moss, which is encouraging news for Gang Green. Pick: NEW YORK and 42 points