The NBA season opened last night and everyone got their first look at the Miami Heat version of the big 3 (all-stars Dwyane Wade, LeBron James, and Chris Bosh). For those of you who bet that the Heat would go undefeated...you lost, and so did the Heat. The Boston Celtics knocked off the Heat 88-80 in Boston last night. While it is unrealistic to think that an NBA team could go undefeated for an entire season--it's even more insane to bet that a team actually could do it--there is still a chance that the Heat could challenge the 1995-96 Chicago Bulls (72-10) for the best record of all-time. And even if they weren't to do it this year, they are certainly capable of doing it in the next few seasons.
However, right now nobody cares about the 2011-12 NBA season. First of all, there might not be a 2011-12 season because of a possible work stoppage. Second, if you believe the Mayans and other famous seers (and who doesn't?) the world is going to end sometime in 2012, so , really, there is no use worrying about a season or two down the road. Finally, I barely care about the 2010-11 NBA season (or any other NBA season since I stopped caring about the WWF too), so I really don't care about future NBA seasons.
More important than my apathy towards the NBA though, is the ridiculously low number that the bookmakers, modern day Mayans, if you will, have put the Heat's over/under win total at for this season. According to Bodog.com the Heat's over/under number is 64.5 wins. This number seems far too low for a team that boasts 3 all-stars, 2 of whom are often regarded 2 of the top 5 players in the league (Wade and James) and the third (Bosh) who is in the top 10-12. The 1995-96 Bulls had 2 of the best players in the league (Michael Jordan and Scottie Pippen) and a cast of quality role players in rolling to a 72-10 record. Last year the Cavaliers, with LeBron James and a supporting cast that the media basically equated with a JV team, won 61 games en route to losing in the Eastern Conference semi-finals. If this Heat team can't win more than 64 games with 3 of the best 10 players in the league, then I would say that they have failed; in fact, I'd still say they failed if they don't win at least 70 and challenge the 95-96 Bulls. Sure, they may win the championship, but honestly, when you put that level of talent on the same team they had better do something really special and historic. Even with their opening night loss, I would still take all of your money to Las Vegas and bet the over on a ridiculously low 64.5.
Finally, as a public service announcement, allow me to apologize for devoting a post to the NBA. I promise that it will be an extremely rare occurrence, and in exchange for your patience, I leave you with, perhaps, the NBA's greatest contribution to society thanks to John Tesh...the NBA on NBC theme.
As the resident supporter of professional basketball, I feel it my duty to comment on this rare NBA-related post at SSFM.
ReplyDeleteThe over/under line of 64.5 is not low; in fact, it is pretty much on the money, I argue.
During the past 30 seasons, an admittedly arbitrary cutoff to mark the advent of the Bird/Magic-era, I suspect that around 80-10 teams have won 60+ games (facts to be checked). Of those, I'd guess that around ten have won 65+ games: 1996 and 1997 Bulls (72 and 69 wins, respectively), 2000 Lakers (66~68), 2009 LeBrons (66), and a handful from the 1980s and 1990s (again, no time to look up the actual facts, against my best judgment).
This is one quick and dirty look at the difficulty the Heat faces in covering that line, let alone challenging the 1996 Bulls' 72 wins. In scholarly words, it is damn fucking hard to win over 90 percent of your games (65 wins) against the highest level of competition. Achieving such feat requires every key player to remain healthy and motivated throughout the regular season and the organization must make a decision on whether to push for historic achievements (see: 2007 Patriots and 2009 Colts).
A team loaded with that much elite level talent will not have trouble reaching the 55 to 65 win mark. Beyond that range, however, will pose a significant challenge even to those in South Beach and present sufficient amount of doubt to skittish gamblers and self-aggrandizing amateur statisticians posting overwrought blog comments laden with run-on sentences alike.
In summary, I'll gladly take your money, Mike.
Mr. Shin, I don't disagree that winning 65+ games is damn fucking hard, but I don't see how it can be that much of a stretch for this collection of talent to do it. Again, the Cleveland LeBrons won 61 last year and that team was not as talented as this Miami Heat team, so I would think that the Miami Wades could "easily" get to 65+ and challenge those 95-96 Bulls. I will grant you though that they do play in a division with some pretty good teams, which could possibly keep them in check.
ReplyDeleteAlright, instead of taking each other's money, let's take someone else's. I mean, that seems to be all the rage nowadays, right? Bernie Madoff seemed to think so, at least...