Halladay v. Lincecum

Roy Halladay and Tim Lincecum both pitched their teams to victory in their respective game 1s. Lincecum threw a complete game, 2-hit shutout at the Atlanta Braves and Halladay no-hit the Cincinnati Reds and became only the second pitcher in history to throw a post-season no-hitter. Both pitchers were dominant in their outings, but some have argued that Lincecum's performance was better than Halladay's. These include Bill James, the noted author and baseball historian who is largely responsible for the widespread use of sabermetrics, a statistical based approach to evaluating the performance of teams and players, and Dan Rosenheck, a James disciple.

According to James' metric Lincecum scored a 96 game score and Halladay scored a 94. To derive a pitcher's game score, the following formula is used:

1. Start with 50 points
2. Add a point for each out, and 2 more for each inning completed after the 4th
3. Add one point for each strikeout
4. Take away 2 points for each hit, 4 points for each earned run, and 2 points for each unearned run.

The line on both pitchers in their game 1 starts:

• Lincecum: 9 IP, 0 R, 14 Ks, 2 H, 0 BB
• Halladay: 9 IP, 0 R, 8 Ks, 0 H, 1 BB

Both pitchers turned in great performances and I would be foolish to argue otherwise, but I have to disagree with the idea that Lincecum was better than Halladay.

First, let's start with the lineup that each team faced. Halladay faced the best lineup in the National League, a lineup that led the league in average (.272) and home runs (188). Lincecum faced an Atlanta lineup that is 6th in the league in hitting (.258) and 11th in home runs (139). To be fair, Atlanta's lineup did lead the league in on base percentage (.339), but Cincinnati was 2nd at a lowly .338. Due to the disparity in strikeouts between Lincecum and Halladay, the Reds were 6th in strikeouts with 1,218 and the Braves struck out only 1,140 times, 11th most in the league. However, since the object of the game is to score runs, the Reds again trump the Atlanta lineup with an NL best 790 to Atlanta's 5th best 738. In game 1 the Reds put out their varsity lineup, the one largely responsible for Cincinnati's being the best in the National League; meanwhile, the JV lineup Lincecum faced lacked 2B Martin Prado (.307, 15 HR, 66 RBI) and instead featured the weak bats of Alex Gonzalez, Brooks Conrad, and Rick Ankiel--in fairness, Ankiel did win game 2 with a HR, but he still hit .210, 2 HR, and 9 RBI in 47 games for Atlanta. Second, Halladay threw his no-hitter in Citizens Bank Park, a notoriously hitter friendly park and Lincecum pitched his gem in the pitcher friendly AT&T park.

Third, Rosenheck argues that 14 Ks in a game is more impressive than a no-hitter. Last I checked, the only guys with no-hitters in the post-season are Larsen and Halladay. 12 pitchers, including Lincecum, have struck out 14 or more in a post-season game; Bob Gibson, the leader in strikeouts in a post-season game, struck out 17 Tigers in game 1 of the 1968 World Series.

Fourth, it's a NO-HITTER. I could concede to Lincecum if Halladay had thrown a no-hitter and walked 8 or something like that, but Halladay allowed 1 all game long.

Fifth, the idea that Halladay didn't need to throw a shutout and Lincecum did, therefore there was more pressure on Lincecum. How can there not be more pressure on Halladay as this historic gem continued to progress. Anyone who thinks that there is no pressure on a guy throwing a no-hitter must not be watching. When a pitcher is throwing a no-hitter his teammates avoid him like he has the plague; announcers and fans alike will not even mention that he has a "you know what" going; and many become so superstitious because of that "you know what" that they will stay in the same spot or continue to do the same thing--I heard on the radio that Phillies reliever Ryan Madson would not let himself go to the bathroom for about the last 3 innings of the game for fear of jinxing Halladay. The point is that once a pitcher starts taking a no-hitter to the 5th inning and beyond the pressure definitely mounts on him even if he does have the safety net of a large lead because what he's doing is historic and that can be even more important than winning a game, even a game in the post-season. Keep in mind, only one guy before Halladay had thrown a post-season no-hitter; imagine the pressure a pitcher would feel if he could take a no-hitter or a perfect game into the late innings of a World Series game. Again, Lincecum did have considerable pressure on him to maintain that 1-0 lead, but my point here is that Halladay had just as much pressure, if not more because of the situation, on him.

Also, did I mention Halladay threw a no-hitter?!

Lastly, as great as Halladay and Lincecum were in their game 1 starts, Larsen still tops them both with his perfect game against the Dodgers in 1956. Why? Because it's a perfect game.