Week 10 Picks

To combat teams from resting their starters late in the season the NFL changed the way it scheduled games this year by stacking divisional games in the second half. As a result, while a few teams have played 3 or 4 division games, teams like the Giants and the Eagles have only played 1 divisional game through the season's first 9 weeks. That all changes this week as the schedule features 8 division games and Thursday Night Football begins in earnest.


Last week my picks were 10-3 and I improved to 78-52 on the season; however, it still was not good enough to take the top spot in my weekly pool. That said, I've been ordered to get it right! And so, with the NFL schedule heating up as the temperatures get colder, I give you the picks for week number 10 in the league where they play...............for pay...


Thursday


Baltimore Ravens (6-2) @ Atlanta Falcons (6-2) - Week 10 opens with a bang as two of the NFL's best will meet in the Georgia Dome. Not only does this game feature two of the elite teams in the NFL, it's also a match up of two of the top young quarterbacks in the league: Baltimore's Joe Flacco and Atlanta's Matt Ryan. To me this is a pick'em game and, judging by Atlanta only being favored by 1, the bookmakers think the same; in fact, they probably think Baltimore is 2 points better because the home team usually gets 3 points just for being at home. While Atlanta has a slight edge offensively, Baltimore possesses a slight edge defensively, and without a doubt, the best defensive players on the field play for the Ravens in the form of Ray Lewis and Ed Reed. However, the turnover margin favors Atlanta, +7 to Baltimore's +1, and Atlanta's point differential is 6 points better than the Ravens as well. Pick: ATLANTA


Sunday


Tennessee Titans (5-3) @ Miami Dolphins (4-4) - In a year when it's probably going to take at least 10 wins to get an AFC Wild Card berth, neither team can afford to fall back even further. Things don't shape up well for the Dolphins in terms of the home/road records in this one either; Miami is 0-3 at home, Tennessee is 3-1 on the road--I know, I know, you Dolphin fans out there will tell me that they should be 5-3, and 1-2 at home, because of that call at the end of the Pittsburgh game. Tennessee will have to adjust for the loss of WR Kenny Britt, but they hope newly acquired WR Randy Moss will ease that adjustment; however, this will be Moss' third team this season, so his attitude and desire will be closely scrutinized. Tennessee's defense is going to make it very tough on Miami to score points; I also don't like the fact that Miami is -7 in turnovers, and Tennessee is +6. Pick: TENNESSEE


New York Jets (6-2) @ Cleveland Browns (3-5) - When the 2010 schedule came out there were 2 revenge games on the schedule for Jets fans: week 5 against their former QB, Brett Favre, and the Vikings and week 10 against their former coach, Eric Mangini, and the Browns. They beat Favre in week 5, and now will go for the sweep in week 10. However, the Browns are not going to be a pushover and if the Jets decide to overlook the Browns, they won't just be in a close game, they might also get blown out as the Saints and Patriots did against these Browns. Now, I am going to pick the Jets because I think they're the better team, but, like last week, don't be shocked if this one is still in doubt late in the 4th quarter. Cleveland has been very competitive this year (3 of their losses are by 7 or less) and the Jets have been inconsistent and prone to taking penalties. But, I think the Jets defense will be the difference here. Pick: NEW YORK JETS


Cincinnati Bengals (2-6) @ Indianapolis Colts (5-3) - The Colts suffered a tough loss in Philadelphia last week. They not only lost the game, but WR Austin Collie was knocked out of the game and was listed as questionable when this post was written on Wednesday. Terrell Owens has been anything but a malcontent so far this year for the Bengals, in fact, he's the leading WR in the NFL through the first 9 weeks. Now, while I think that this one will be close, I think that having Peyton Manning on their side will be enough of an edge for the Colts to pull out a victory. Pick: INDIANAPOLIS


Houston Texans (4-4) @ Jacksonville Jaguars (4-4) - This could be a de facto playoff game. The loser would sit at 4-5 and hold last place in the AFC South and would have to leap frog possibly 5 teams just to get into the playoffs. After starting out 3-1, the Texans are on life support. They are 1-3 in their last 4 games and have given up an average of 31 points in those 4 games. While the Jaguars did put 35 up on the Cowboys 2 weeks ago, they have had problems scoring points, and so something has to give in this one. Even if it is the Texans defense that gives in this one, I still think their offense is good enough to score on a Jaguars defense that may be as bad as their own. Pick: HOUSTON


Minnesota Vikings (3-5) @ Chicago Bears (5-3) - The Bears opened with a surprising 3-0 start, but since the Giants beat them up in week 4 they have lost 3 of their last 5. Except for their loss to the Giants and the win the following week against Carolina, each game for the Bears has been decided by 7 points or less. On the other side, the Vikings have been a team in turmoil virtually all season, and that has not ceased into week 10. I think that this game will be decided by the two defenses and both quarterbacks will throw at least 2 interceptions each. Pick: MINNESOTA


Carolina Panthers (1-7) @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (5-3) - Now, last week when they went into Atlanta to play the Falcons, I told you, courtesy of SI's Peter King, that the teams the Bucs beat had a combined record of 12-24 and the teams they lost to were a combined 10-5. So, a week after facing a very good team in their division, the Bucs get to play the very worst team in their division. Pick: TAMPA BAY


Detroit Lions (2-6) @ Buffalo Bills (0-8) - Give these two teams credit, despite their poor records they have not given up and they have really made their opponents earn their victories. Buffalo has lost 3 straight by 3 points or less, and the game before that they blew a big first half lead against the Jaguars; and the Lions gave away a victory last week against the Jets. However, that ability to find a way to lose is the reason that these two have the records they do. I thought that the Bills had a great chance to get a win last week against the Bears, but I don't think their chances are as good against the Lions. Pick: DETROIT


Kansas City Chiefs (5-3) @ Denver Broncos (2-6) - The Chiefs travel to the Mile High City a week after a hard luck loss to the Raiders in Oakland. About the only thing going for Denver this week is that Kansas City is 1-3 on the road; however, Denver is only 1-3 at home, so that advantage may not be that great anyway. Denver has been outscored by 69 points this year and is -4 in turnovers, and Kansas City is +38 and +6. During their 4 game losing streak the Broncos have not been competitive enough to make them a live dog here; 2 losses by 8 or less and 2 blowouts. Since it's a division game and the Chiefs aren't a high scoring team it may be somewhat close, but I like Kansas City here. Pick: KANSAS CITY

Dallas Cowboys (1-7) @ New York Giants (6-2) - The Giants are a 14 point favorite against a Dallas team that was once a favorite to be in the Super Bowl. There is really little reason to pick the Cowboys here. Their starting quarterback, Tony Romo, was knocked out for the season by these Giants a few weeks ago; they're -9 in turnovers; and they've been outscored by 71 points on the year. The one thing that has to concern you is that after firing coach Wade Phillips this week, the Cowboys might come out motivated to show that they are not going to just roll over for their opponents the rest of the year. However, even if the Cowboys do come out with a strong effort, I wouldn't expect the Giants to take a division opponent lightly. Pick: NEW YORK GIANTS

Seattle Seahawks (4-4) @ Arizona Cardinals (3-5) - The Seahawks have been shell shocked the previous 2 weeks and this week they go on the road to play Arizona. Seattle will also be without its starting quarterback. I think the Cardinals get a slight edge here because they're at home, but it really is an even game. The bookies seem to agree with me as Arizona is a 3 point favorite. Pick: ARIZONA

St. Louis Rams (4-4) @ San Francisco 49ers (2-6) - If Arizona were to beat Seattle and San Francisco beats St. Louis, the 49ers, unbelievably, would be within 1 game of first place after starting the year 0-5. The Rams don't travel well, 0-3 on the road, and the 49ers are 2-2 at home, and those 2 losses were by a combined 6 points. I'll take the 49ers here. Pick: SAN FRANCISCO

New England Patriots (6-2) @ Pittsburgh Steelers (6-2) - Another match up of teams tied for the best record in the NFL. The Patriots were badly beaten by the Browns last week and it gets no easier this week as they play the Steelers. The Steelers have played like one of the NFL's best all year and they've lost 2 games by a total of 13 points, and the 2 teams that beat them are a combined 12-5. Now, this is not a situation like the Bucs faced last week because the Steelers have also beaten good teams as well. They've beaten Atlanta, Miami, Tennessee, and Tampa Bay, all of whom are at .500 or above. The Pats have a couple of quality wins (Miami and Baltimore), but they did lose to Cleveland last week too. I think the Steelers have a slight edge here; they are better in net points and turnover margin. Pick: PITTSBURGH

Monday

Philadelphia Eagles (5-3) @ Washington Redskins (4-4) - The Eagles beat the Colts last week in Michael Vick's return from injury; the Washington Redskins come back from a much needed bye week. The Redskins beat Philadelphia 17-12 in week 4, and have been competitive in most of their games. However, the Eagles are a better team, and they'll have their eyes on avenging that week 4 loss. Pick: PHILADELPHIA and 49 points