Week 14 Picks

My apologies for the lack of updates to the blog over the past week and a half. I've missed an awful lot in such a short period of time, including the escalation of the arms race in the American League East; the Red Sox have acquired Adrian Gonzalez and Carl Crawford and the Yankees are going after Cliff Lee as hard as they can. The Jets got embarrassed in New England, but if you ask me, and you haven't, they'll still have a huge say in who wins the AFC. The Giants remain tied with the Eagles in the NFC East and still remain in a tight race for their division and an NFC wild card spot. My football picks went 12-4 for the third straight week to bring the season record to 120-72, but, alas, not good enough to win the pool. So, we move onward and hopefully upward as I give you the picks for week 14 in the league where they play...for pay...

Thursday

Indianapolis Colts (6-6) @ Tennessee Titans (5-7) - Both teams come into this one looking to jumpstart their seasons for one final push at the AFC South title and a spot in the playoffs. The Titans come in losers of 5 in a row and a loss tonight to the Colts pretty much buries them for the season. The Colts, losers of 3 in a row, sit 1 game back of division leading Jacksonville and are in desperate need of a victory tonight. Peyton Manning has thrown 11 interceptions in the last 3 games for Indianapolis as teams can sit back and flood the passing lanes on a Colts offense that cannot run the ball and lacks some very important pass catchers. It's hard to feel confident about either team in this one, but I'll trust that a very prideful Peyton Manning shows up and leads the Colts to victory and keeps them alive in the AFC South. Pick: INDIANAPOLIS

Sunday

New England Patriots (10-2) @ Chicago Bears (9-3) - After the Pats blew out the Jets on Monday night it looks like the Patriots are the new "best team in the NFL" contest. However, after beating the Jets, are the Patriots ready to take on another one of the better teams in the NFL? If they had anyone else at coach and quarterback, I would look for a letdown, but it's hard to see Belichick or Brady allowing that to happen here. The Bears are usually able to generate an excellent pass rush, but that ability is going to be tested against an offensive line that has kept Tom Brady upright and his jersey clean all year. I also think that Jay Cutler is certainly capable of turning the ball over a few times, perhaps even to Devin McCourty, the rookie CB from Rutgers. Pick: NEW ENGLAND

Cleveland Browns (5-7) @ Buffalo Bills (2-10) - A matchup featuring two teams that have not given up despite their sub-.500 records. The Browns have somehow found a way to get victory away from the jaws of defeat while the Bills have stolen defeat from the jaws of victory. I would expect this one to be an even game, and the Browns close out the victory behind RB Peyton Hillis. Pick: CLEVELAND

Cincinnati Bengals (2-10) @ Pittsburgh Steelers (9-3) - What a disappointment the Bengals have been this season, especially Carson Palmer, who continues to turn the ball over way too much. And you may not like him, but Terrell Owens has been very productive this year, so you can't blame him for this team's terrible performance. As for this one against the Steelers, who won a hard fought battle with Baltimore last week, I think the Bengals will show up and play the Steelers tough, perhaps in the neighborhood of 17-14 or 20-17, but Palmer will make a critical turnover in the 4th quarter to give the Steelers another victory. Pick: PITTSBURGH

Oakland Raiders (6-6) @ Jacksonville Jaguars (7-5) - The Raiders came up with a big effort last week in San Diego against the Chargers to level their record at 6-6, and while they most likely will miss the playoffs, there is reason to be optimistic about the Raiders going forward. This week they face another daunting challenge, traveling across the country to face the Jacksonville Jaguars, who lead the AFC South. It would not be a shock if the Raiders won this one, but I think the combination of traveling across the country and facing a Jacksonville team that senses an opportunity to win the division will be too much for the Raiders; Oakland is 2-4 on the road and the Jaguars are 4-2 at home. The running backs on both sides should have a big say in how this one ends up. Pick: JACKSONVILLE

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (7-5) @ Washington Redskins (5-7) - The Bucs have to be smarting after last week's loss against Atlanta at home. Leading in the 4th quarter, the Bucs could not close the Falcons out and, as a result, now sit 1 game out of the playoffs with 4 to play. Washington could have helped the Bucs out last week, but they didn't even show up against the Giants in New York. As far as this one goes, I'm sticking with the trend that has held true all season: the Bucs don't lose against teams that are worse than they are...they also don't beat the teams that are better either. Pick: TAMPA BAY

Green Bay Packers (8-4) @ Detroit Lions (2-10) - The Lions continue to play hard, which you have to respect, but it is not translating into victories. Unfortunately, for the Lions, I don't see them getting a victory here either. The Lions nearly pulled off a miracle comeback in the first meeting between these two up at Lambeau Field, and I would expect the Lions to make the Packers sweat a bit here too; however, I think Green Bay is one of the better teams in the NFC and they should come away with the win. Aaron Rodgers is the real deal at quarterback and the Packers defense is one of the best in the league. Pick: GREEN BAY

New York Giants (8-4) @ Minnesota Vikings (5-7) - Last week the pressure was on the Giants to keep pace with the Eagles, who had won earlier in the week; this week the Giants can put that pressure on the Eagles, who play Sunday night. There has been a lot of discussion about whether or not Brett Favre will start, but I don't buy for a second that he won't be starting. He is agonizingly close to 300 consecutive starts and, let's face it, he didn't come out of retirement to hold a clipboard. So, while I think he will start, I also think he will be running for his life as the Giant pass rush chases him down all afternoon. The Giants are also starting to get healthy as WRs Steve Smith and Hakeem Nicks and LT David Diehl are all practicing, and OLs Shaun O'Hara and Shawn Andrews could be back next week. Pick: NEW YORK GIANTS

Atlanta Falcons (10-2) @ Carolina Panthers (1-11) - Talk about a real chance to fatten up and get the #1 seed in the NFC playoffs; the Falcons get to face the lowly Panthers twice in the season's last 4 weeks. In addition to facing the Panthers this week in Carolina, the Falcons will play at Seattle in week 15, home against New Orleans in week 16, and finish at home against Carolina in week 17. And while the Saints are nipping at the Falcons' heels, their last 4 are a bit tougher. In addition to the Falcons in week 16, they have the Rams this week, then go to Baltimore, and they finish at home against Tampa Bay. But, as for this game, I'm taking the Falcons. Pick: ATLANTA

St. Louis Rams (6-6) @ New Orleans Saints (9-3) - On its face, this one looks like an easy one for the Saints; however, I would urge you to have more respect for Steve Spagnuolo's Rams. They may not have the fire power to equal the Saints, but they are a hard-nosed team that will play tough defensively. However, that just means I don't think that the Rams will get blown out. This one is at New Orleans, a traditionally tough place to play, and the Saints are getting healthy in the backfield as well. Pick: NEW ORLEANS

Seattle Seahawks (6-6) @ San Francisco 49ers (4-8) - Talk about an awful division, the NFC West is so bad that even the 3-9 Cardinals are still technically in the playoff hunt, as are the 49ers, who seemed to be everybody's preseason pick. Now, as bad as this division is, I still like the idea that a division winner gets to host a playoff game against a wild card, even if the wild card has a better record. I don't want to hear this nonsense that it's not fair to the team that won more games to have to go on the road to play an inferior team in the playoffs. Silencio! Any team that wins its division deserves to host a playoff game. If home field means so much to you, then you should have won your own division. Now quit crying, and go play on the road! I have not heard the Saints do any of this crying, but I have heard it from others elsewhere, and I suspect as the season draws to a close we will hear it more, especially if the NFC West winner has a sub-.500 record. Pick: SEATTLE

Miami Dolphins (6-6) @ New York Jets (9-3) - The Jets were embarrassed by the Patriots on Monday night and now they look to take it out on the Dolphins. It's not going to be that easy. Miami is a much better team on the road, although that usually doesn't translate for Miami late in the season when they come north. But, they have a secret weapon on their side! That's right, the New York Giants, who will let the Dolphins practice in their facility prior to the game so the Dolphins can get acclimated to the conditions. However, while the Dolphins will use the Giants facility, they will be practicing in the Giants' practice bubble, and, last I had heard, the new Giants Stadium does not have a dome. So, how this will aid the Dolphins and why it's such a big deal is beyond me. After getting punched in the mouth...repeatedly, the Jets are hitting the panic button just a bit. Rex Ryan has said he'll take the ball first if the Jets win the coin toss instead of letting his defense go out and set the tone early. And, for the first time in Ryan's tenure, the Jets have been relatively quiet in the media. The Jets were certainly humbled by Bill Belichick, Tom Brady, and the rest of the New England Patriots last week, but they should still be able to beat Miami this week. The Jets defense shuts down the run very effectively, the Dolphins are not a big time passing team, and Mark Sanchez and the offense were playing very well until last week. If the Dolphins do knock off the Jets, then it's time to...PANIC!!!!!!!! Pick: NEW YORK JETS

Denver Broncos (3-9) @ Arizona Cardinals (3-9) - The Broncos are hoping that what worked for the Cowboys and Vikings will work for them. After firing their head coaches the Cowboys and Vikings both won the next week. Well, the Broncos fired Josh McDaniels this week, and they'll look to get interim coach Eric Studesville his first win as head coach. I picked Denver, but I have little conviction about this pick. More importantly, regardless of who coaches the Broncos next year, they will be paying 3 coaches next season. They still owe Mike Shanahan, who now coaches in Washington, the recently deposed McDaniels, and McDaniels' replacement. While I have no idea who Denver will target, it will be interesting to see if they go for a cheaper, lesser known commodity, or if they go after a coach with a proven track record, like Brian Billick, Jon Gruden, et al. Pick: DENVER

Kansas City Chiefs (8-4) @ San Diego Chargers (6-6) - The Kansas City Chiefs can thank the Oakland Raiders for potentially winning the AFC West for them. Last week the Chargers attempt to make another late season run at the AFC West took a major hit when the Chargers lost at home to the Raiders. Instead of being 7-5, 1 game back, and a chance to draw even this week, the Chargers, 6-6 and 2 games back, face a must win game this week against the Chiefs. If Kansas City wins, they will have a 3 game lead with 3 to play and the division all but locked up. In order to win, though, they're most likely going to have to do so without QB Matt Cassel, who underwent an appendectomy this week and is most likely out. The Chargers, meanwhile, will have their elite QB, Phillip Rivers, at the controls and I would expect San Diego to get back on track and win this week and win out to keep the pressure on Kansas City. Pick: SAN DIEGO

Philadelphia Eagles (8-4) @ Dallas Cowboys (4-8) - After sleepwalking through much of the season and getting their coach fired, the Cowboys now appear to be playing up to their talent level. They have won 3 of 4 under interim coach Jason Garrett, and, let's be honest, if it weren't for Roy Williams' fumble late against New Orleans, it would be 4 of 4. They beat a 1 dimensional Indianapolis team last week, forcing Peyton Manning into 4 interceptions. This week they will face a much tougher challenge in Michael Vick and the Philadelphia Eagles. I would expect this one to be another high scoring affair like the Cowboys-Colts game was last week (38-35, OT), as the Eagles' defense just does not seem to be as good under Sean McDermott as it was under the deceased Jim Johnson. Pick: PHILADELPHIA

Monday

Baltimore Ravens (8-4) @ Houston Texans (5-7) - The Ravens were hard luck losers against the Steelers last Sunday night, but I would expect them to bounce back in a big way against the Texans this week. Houston lost a tough one to Philadelphia, but they will be facing one of the best defenses in the NFL this week and Matt Schaub and the offense will have a much tougher time moving the ball this week. Conversely, Joe Flacco and his Ravens offense should put up more than the 10 points they put on the Steelers on a very weak Houston defense. Pick: BALTIMORE and 41 points.